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Prediction for CME (2016-11-05T04:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2016-11-05T04:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/11494/-1
CME Note: Filament Eruption off the northern Hemisphere giving a very wide-angle partial halo. Another CME came off the farside and eastern limb at a similar time. Evident in SOHO and STEREO imagery after 05/0200UTC.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2016-11-09T05:28Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 5.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2016-11-08T16:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/11502/1
Model Inputs:
2016-11-05T04:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=26.0, Lat.=23.0, Speed=487.0, HalfAngle=35.0, Time21.5=2016-11-05T12:17Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2016-11-08T16:00Z (+- 7 hours)
Duration of disturbance (hr) =8.0 (+- 8 hours)

Other Location(s) Impact:

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20161105_121700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20161105_121700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20161105_121700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20161105_121700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20161105_121700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20161105_121700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20161105_121700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20161105_121700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20161105_121700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20161105_121700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20161105_121700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Spitz_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20161105_121700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 83.60 hour(s)
Difference: 13.47 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Karin Muglach (GSFC) on 2016-11-05T17:52Z

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